2021

Research Papers and Refereed Articles

Melnychuk, M.C., Kurota, H., Mace, P.M., Pons, M., Minto, C., Osio, G.C., Jensen, O.P., de Moor, C.L., Parma, A.M., Little, L.R., Hively, D., Ashbrook, C.E., Baker, N., Amoroso, R.O., Branch, T.A., Anderson, C.M., Szuwalski, C.S., Baum, J.K., McClanahan, T., Ye, Y., Ligas, A., Bensbai, J., Thompson, G.G., DeVore, J., Magnusson, A., Bogstad, B., Wort, E., Rice, J. and Hilborn, R. Identifying management actions that promote sustainable fisheries. Submitted to Nature Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-020-00668-1

Hilborn, R., Hively, D., Baker, N., de Moor, C.L., Kurota, H., Kathena, J.N., Mace, P., Minto, C., Parma, A.M., Quiroz J.C., Melnychuk, M. Global status of groundfish stocks. Accepted to Fish and Fisheries. http://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12560.

Advanced Access

Punt, A.E., Tuck, G.N., Day, J., Canales, C.M., Cope, J.M., de Moor, C.L., De Oliveira, J.A.A., Dickey-Collas, M., Elvarsson, B., Haltuch, M.A., Hamel, O.S., Hicks, A.C, Legault, C.M., Lynch, P.D., and Wilberg, M.J. When are model-based stock assessments rejected for use in management and what happens then? Accepted to Fisheries Research. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2019.105465

Siple, M. C., Koehn, L. E., Johnson, K-F., Punt, A.E., Canales, T.M., Carpi, P., de Moor, C.L., De Oliveira, J.A.A., Gao, J., Jacobson, N.S., Lam, M.E., Licandeo, R., Lindegren, M., Ma, S., Óskarsson, G.J., Sanchez-Maroño, S., Smoliński, S., Surma, S., Tian, Y., Tommasi, D., Gutiérrez Torero, M., Trenkel, V., Zador, S.G. and Zimmermann, F. Considerations for management strategy evaluation for small pelagic fishes. Fish and Fisheries. https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12579.

Unpublished Research/Technical/Policy Documents

Brandão, A., Ross-Gillespie, A., Vermeulen, E. and Butterworth, D.S. Updated extension of a photo-identification based assessment model to southern right whales in South African waters to allow for the possibility of an early abortion of the calf in the model. International Whaling Commission: SC/68C/SH/05: 35pp.

PowerPoint Presentations

	Butterworth, D.S., Brandão, A. and Johnston, S.J. Report on the development of harvest strategies for key target species in the SIOFA area. Presented to the SIOFA SERAWG meeting 8-9 March 2021: 21pp.
	Johnston, S.J. and Butterworth, D.S. Updated 2021 assessments and projections of west coast rock lobster. Presentation to the West Coast rock lobster scientific working group, 11 August 2021: 28pp.
	Johnston, S.J. and Butterworth, D.S. Further results and projections for west coast rock lobster. Presentation to the West Coast rock lobster scientific working group, 20 August 2021: 15pp.

SIOFA

Butterworth, D.S., Brandão, A. and Johnston, S.J. Report presented to the SIOFA SERAWG meeting 8-9 March 2021: 42pp.

Tristan

	Johnston, S.J. and Butterworth, D.S. Impact of possible catch roll-overs at Gough island. MARAM document: MARAM/TRISTAN/2021/FEB/01: 5pp.
	Johnston, S.J. Exceptional Circumstances rule for the Tristan OMP 2020 when one or more data inputs are unavailable. MARAM document: MARAM/TRISTAN/2021/FEB/02: 5pp.
	Johnston, S.J. and Butterworth, D.S. Updated (and rescaled) Tristan Island GLM-standardised Jasus tristani lobster CPUE to take account of data for the 2020 season. MARAM document: MARAM/TRISTAN/2021/MAY/02: 11pp.
	Johnston, S.J. Exceptional Circumstances rule for the Tristan OMP 2020 when one or more data inputs are unavailable. MARAM document: MARAM/TRISTAN.2021/MAY/03: 5pp.
	Johnston, S.J. and Butterworth, D.S. Updated 2021 assessments of Jasus tristani rock lobster at Gough Island. MARAM document: MARAM/TRISTAN/2021/MAY/04: 32pp.
	Johnston, S.J. and Butterworth, D.S. Updated 2021 Inaccessible Island assessments. MARAM document: MARAM/TRISTAN/2021/MAY/05: 16pp.
	Johnston, S.J. and Butterworth, D.S. Updated 2021 GLMM-standardised lobster CPUE from Gough Island of the Tristan da Cunha outer group of islands. MARAM document: MARAM/TRISTAN/2021/MAY/06: 11pp.
	Johnston, S.J. and Butterworth, D.S. Updated 2021 GLMM-standardised lobster CPUE from Inaccessible and Nightingale islands. MARAM document: MARAM/TRISTAN/2021/JUN/07: 12pp.
	Johnston, S.J. Initial Gough CMP results. MARAM document: MARAM/TRISTAN/2021/JUN/08: 12pp.
	Johnston, S.J. and Butterworth, D.S. Recommendations on rock lobster TACs for Tristan and Nightingale islands for the 2021/22 season. MARAM document: MARAM/TRISTAN/2021/JUN/10: 5pp.
	Johnston, S.J. Further Gough OMP candidate results. MARAM document: MARAM/TRISTAN/2021/JUN/09: 11pp.
	Johnston, S.J. and Butterworth, D.S. Revised 2021 assessment of Jasus tristani rock lobster at Gough island. MARAM document: MARAM/TRISTAN/2021/JUL/11: 13pp.
	Johnston, S.J. Revised CMP results for VAR6, VAR5.5 and VAR5. MARAM document: MARAM/TRISTAN/2021/JUL/12: 4pp.
	Johnston, S.J. Extended CMP results for VAR6, VAR5.5 and VAR5 for Gough island lobster. MARAM document: MARAM/TRISTAN/2021/JUL/13: 11pp.
	Johnston, S.J. Inaccessible CMP results. MARAM document: MARAM/TRISTAN/2021/JUL/14: 13pp.
	Johnston, S.J. and Butterworth, D.S. Recommendations on rock lobster TACs for Gough and Inaccessible islands for the 2021/22 season. MARAM document: MARAM/TRISTAN/2021/JUL/15: 5pp.
	Johnston, S.J. and Butterworth, D.S. Summary of recommendations on rock lobster TACs for the Tristan group of islands for the 2021/22 season. MARAM document: MARAM/TRISTAN/2021/JUL/16: 2pp.

Consultancy and Other Activities Based on Expertise Developed in Research

	Brandão, A. and Butterworth, D.S. Updated analyses of the Fisheries Independent Monitoring Survey data of the rock lobster resource of South Africa to include the 2019/20 season. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUN/SWG-WCRL/01: 19pp.
	Brandão, A. and Butterworth, D.S. Updated trends in poaching for west coast rock lobster from modelling the “old” and the “new” databases simultaneously. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUN/SWG-WCRL/02: 11pp.
	Brandão, A. and Butterworth, D.S. Compliance poaching trends updated up to 2020 for west coast rock lobster from modelling the “old” and the “new” databases simultaneously. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUN/SWG-WCRL/11: 12pp.
	Brandão, A. and Butterworth, D.S. Updated analyses of the Fisheries Independent Monitoring Survey data of the rock lobster resource of South Africa to include the 2020/21 season. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUN/SWG-WCRL/12: 19pp.
	Brandão, A. and Butterworth, D.S. Results of residual analyses and a further sensitivity to “outlier” omission of the model to obtain Compliance poaching trends for west coast rock lobster. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/AUG/SWG-WCRL/17: 10pp.
	Brandão, A. and Butterworth, D.S. The 2020 Operational Management Procedure for the toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) resource in the Prince Edward islands vicinity. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUN/SWG-DEM/09: 10 pp.
	Butterworth, D.S. Suggestions for Common Data and Model Structure for Island Closures Analyses. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JAN/SWG-PEL/02: 7pp.
	Butterworth, D.S. The Penguin decline - where should most analysis effort really be focused? DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/MAR/SWG-PEL/10: 4pp.
	Butterworth, D.S. A proposed structured framework for providing scientific advice on possible responses to the decline in the numbers of African penguins. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/MAR/SWG-PEL/12: 4pp.
	Butterworth, D.S. and Ross-Gillespie, A. A summary of results for the island closure experiment. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUN/SEG-PEL/36: 4pp.
	Butterworth, D.S. and Ross-Gillespie, A. A revised summary of results for the island closure experiment. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUN/SWG-PEL/41: 5pp.
	Butterworth, D.S. and Ross-Gillespie, A. Comparison of the GLMM year effect variance from models of west coast response variables in the island closure experiment with the variance of anchovy recruitment. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUL/SWG-PEL/42: 3pp.
	Butterworth, D.S. and Ross-Gillespie, A. A regression-based estimate of the November 2020 sardine recruitment strength based on the June 2021 recruitment survey results. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUL/SWG-PEL/52: 7pp.
	de Moor, C.L. The formulae used to set the 2021 initial anchovy TAC. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JAN/SWG-PEL/06: 2pp.
	de Moor, C.L. The operating model for an anchovy-only OMP-18rev. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/APR/SWG-PEL/20rev: 8pp.
	de Moor, C.L. Exploitation rates corresponding to 2021 sardine TACs and TABs. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/APR/SWG-PEL/21: 4pp.
	de Moor, C.L., Merkle, D., Coetzee, J. and van der Lingen, C.D. The data used in the 2021 sardine assessment. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHEREIS/2021/SPR/SWG-PEL/22: 27pp.
	de Moor, C.L. Updated assessment of the South African sardine resource using data from 1984-2020. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/APR/SWG-PEL/23: 22pp.
	de Moor, C.L. Sardine projections based on constant catch scenarios. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/APR/SWG-PEL/27: 13pp.
	de Moor, C.L. Further sardine projections based on constant catch scenarios. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/MAY/SWG-PEL/33: 12pp.
	de Moor, C.L. Using the ratio of juvenile sardine:anchovy estimated by the June 2021 recruit survey be used to predict the 2021 small sardine bycatch with anchovy. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUN/SWG-PEL/37: 3pp.
	de Moor, C.L. A sensitivity test to the assessment of the South African sardine resource based on an alternative estimate of November 2020 biomass. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUL/SWG-PEL/48: 7pp.
	de Moor, C.L. Final anchovy TAC for 2021. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUL/SWG-PEL/50: 3 pp.
	de Moor, C.L. A starting point for objectives for the next South African joint sardine-anchovy OMP. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUL/SWG-PEL/53: 2pp.
	Johnston, S.J. and Butterworth, D.S. Updated 2020 poaching time series for use in the west coast rock lobster population models. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUN/SWG-WCRL/03: 9pp.
	Johnston, S.J. and Butterworth, D.S. Updated 2020 assessments and deterministic projections for west coast rock lobster. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUN/SWG-WCRL/04: 27pp.
	Johnston, S.J. Summary of 2020 views with regards to west coast rock lobster poaching. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUN/SWG-WCRL/06: 3pp.
	Johnston, S.J. Summary of 2020 updated west coast rock lobster stock assessments. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUN/SWG-WCRL/07: 2pp.
	Johnston, S.J. Brief summary of the reasons underlying the WCRL SWG west coast rock lobster TAC recommendations for the 2020/21 season. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUN/SWG-WCRL/08: 2pp.
	Johnston, S.J. and Butterworth, D.S. A suggested new approach to combine estimates of illegally exported and locally sold west coast rock lobster. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/AUG/SWG-WCRL/18: 11pp.
	Johnston, S.J. and Butterworth, D.S. Final poaching trends using the new approach to combine estimates of illegally exported and locally sold west coast rock lobster. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUL/SWGTT-WCRL/19: 12pp.
	Johnston, S.J. and Butterworth, D.S. Updated 2021 assessments and initial projections of the west coast rock lobster resource. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/AUG/SWG-WCRL/20: 34pp.
	Johnston, S.J. and Butterworth, D.S. Updating and modifying the 2020 south coast rock lobster assessment. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUN/SWG-SCRL/01: 20pp.
	Johnston, S.J. South coast rock lobster OMP revision scheduled for 2022. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUN/SWG-SCRL/03: 1pp.
	Ross-Gillespie, A. and Butterworth, D.S. An initial implementation of suggestions by the 2020 Panel to improve estimates of the effect of fishing around islands on penguins by using models with random effects and applied to both aggregated and disaggregated data. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/APR/SWG-PEL/24. 19pp.
	Ross-Gillespie, A. and Butterworth, D.S. Re-analysis of the Island Closure Experiment results to implement the Suggestions of the December 2020 International Panel. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUN/SWG-PEL/35: 40pp.
	Ross-Gillespie, A. and Butterworth, D.S. Updated analysis of results from data arising from the Island Closure Experiment. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUN/SWG-PEL/39rev: 15pp.
	Ross-Gillespie, A. and Butterworth, D.S. Update to the hake Reference Case model incorporating the 2019 commercial and 2020 survey data. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUN/SWG-DEM/07: 15pp.